By Salem Chicago News Staff
CHICAGO — With six games remaining in the regular season, a three-way tie among the Cubs, Padres and Phillies for the National League Wild Card is mathematically in play, and MLB’s tiebreaker rules would give Chicago the best possible outcome.
The Cubs and Padres entered the final week at 87-69, with the Phillies one game back at 86-70. All three teams could clinch Wild Card berths as early as this week, but the exact seeding remains uncertain.
NL Wild Card Standings Heading Into the Final Week
- Cubs: 87-69 — three games vs. Miami, three at Boston.
- Padres: 87-69 — three at Los Angeles, three vs. Arizona.
- Phillies: 86-70 — three vs. Milwaukee, three vs. Tampa Bay.
Under MLB’s tiebreaker system, adopted in 2022 to replace one-game playoffs, ties are resolved mathematically rather than on the field. In a three-team tie where the clubs do not have identical records against one another, the team with the superior record against both others earns the top position.
The Cubs dominated their season series against both clubs, going 5-1 against San Diego and 6-1 against Philadelphia. That record would earn Chicago the No. 4 seed and home-field advantage in a best-of-three Wild Card Series.
The remaining tiebreaker between the Padres and Phillies also tilts decisively. Philadelphia went 6-0 against San Diego, sweeping a pair of three-game series between May 25 and June 4.
Resulting Bracket in a Three-Way Tie Scenario
- Cubs (No. 4 seed) host Phillies (No. 5) in Wild Card Series.
- Padres (No. 6) play at the No. 3 seed, most likely the Braves.
“These are really important games remaining,” MLB.com editor Andrew Simon wrote in his analysis of the scenario Monday. “All three of those teams have six games remaining, and they could easily finish in any order.”
The Diamondbacks remain the only other team with a mathematical path to the postseason, but Arizona entered the week four games behind Philadelphia and five behind the Cubs and Padres. FanGraphs placed the Diamondbacks’ postseason odds at 5.7 percent as of Monday.
The division titles have been decided. The Brewers clinched the NL Central, the Dodgers won the NL West and the Braves locked up the NL East. The Dodgers hold a four-game lead over the Braves for the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye into the Division Series.
For the Cubs, the final week presents a favorable schedule. Chicago opens a three-game set against Miami before closing the regular season at Boston. The Padres face stiffer competition with three games in Los Angeles against the Dodgers.
The Wild Card Series is scheduled to begin Sept. 29. Division Series play opens Oct. 3.
